|
E D I T O R
I A L
|
|
So Oracle (ORCL:Nasdaq) is the hope and Tellabs (TLAB:Nasdaq) is the despair.
Oracle is a bet that business is turning because rates are going lower.
Tellabs is a bet that the problems in telephones are getting worse, not better, and have nothing to do with lower rates.
Oracle's stock action says that, when the Fed cuts, business could get even better.
Tellabs says that it really doesn't matter, because there is no way this business is going to be a growth business any time soon.
The dichotomy is clearly stated. If your business doesn't have anything to do with the telecom world,
you may have a fighting chance of seeing a bottom and then some actual upward movement.
If your business is linked to telecom, your stock is locked in an ever-widening range, with the range being to the downside.
Tellabs becomes Nortel (NT:NYSE), which becomes Lucent(LU:NYSE), like those facing mirrors you see in the barber shop.
The painful thing is a lot of people don't know which kind of tech they are in.
When I talked over this dichotomy with some individuals, smart individuals, earlier on Tuesday,
I was struck by how few people really thought there was a big difference between Tellabs and Oracle.
Nothing could be further from the truth.
Know what companies you have. Know what end markets they sell into.
Know that WorldCom (WCOM:Nasdaq) and AT&T(T:NYSE) are crummy endmarkets,
but Chevron (CHV:NYSE) and General Motors (GM:NYSE) are good ones and getting better.
If you don't know what end markets your companies sell into, I have an awful feeling that they might be telecom.
That was the bias these last few years. It is where all of the money was made.
That is no longer be the case. There is still time to prune, still time to reposition elsewhere.
|
|